Blog
2008/10/08のBlog
[ 01:26 ]
[ 日本の経済・相場 ]
なんで？
日本の金融システムは頑健だから？
その結果、円高が進み株価がさらにきりさがっても、"日銀の中の人"には関係ないもんね。
☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
（以下の部分は昨日書いていたものです）
白川総裁の現状認識がまともだと思えたのはわずか半年前だった。
あれから経済環境は国内外ともに大きくかわったのに、日銀の現状認識は基本的に変わっていないと思う。
[当面の金融政策運営について]
先行きについては不確実性が大きいものの、やや長い目でみれば、エネルギー・原材料価格高の影響が薄れ、海外経済も減速局面を脱するにつれて、次第に緩やかな成長経路に復していくと予想される。
→「先行き」ってのは、2年後っすかｗ それまでの下振れを見ろよ。てか、足もとの落ち込みすらも見ないつもりか？
リスク要因をみると、米欧の金融機関の破綻などを背景に国際金融資本市場の緊張が強まっており、また、世界経済には下振れリスクがある。国内民間需要については、これまでの交易条件の悪化を反映した所得形成の弱まりから下振れるリスクがある。設備・雇用面での調整圧力を抱えていないとはいえ、景気の下振れリスクには注意が必要である。
→いや、「下振れリスク」じゃなくて、すでに「景気後退」なんすけどｗｗｗｗｗ
それに、「設備・雇用面での調整圧力を抱えていない」って、まじ？失業率は4.2％からさらに上昇傾向。トヨタが期間工を削減し、新規採用を凍結、って言っているときになに言ってんだ、こいつｗｗｗ
この間、景気の下振れリスクが薄れる場合には、緩和的な金融環境の長期化が経済・物価の振幅をもたらすリスクが高まると考えられる。
→は？今の金融環境が緩和的だとでも？それが長期化すると、って言いたいの？
Q&A
現在の株価下落は世界の株価下落のなかで起きているものであります。その背景には世界の金融機関の破たんによるものである。また、交易条件の悪化によるものでもある。そういう株価の下落が経済にどういう影響を与えるかは、注意深く見ている。
→株価の上昇は上がってなくても警戒するけど、下落はどれだけ深刻でも放置。
へえーーー、
その非対称性の理由は？
ま、日銀としては資産バブルを起こすと責められけど、デフレで景気後退が深刻になって死人が続出してもその責任は問われないからねｗ
日銀文学ってのは、「幻を見る」ということですか、へぇーーー
一言でいえばウソツキ、ですね。あるいは、人殺し。
注意して見るだけでなにもしないんだったら、辞めたら？
繰り返し言うけど、ただの評論家は必要ないだけでなく、国民にとって有害なので。
☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
日経ネットPlus: [会見動画]
今回気づいたんだけど、やましい気持ちがあるときには、声のトーンが弱くなり、早口になって、語尾がゴニョゴニョする人なのね。ひとつわかったよ。
市場が崩壊して、どーーーしょうもなくなってから初めて利下げする人ね。
FEDが実質上、ゼロ金利になった以上、日米の名目金利はもはや逆転した。
最初の攻撃はいっそうの円高と。財政もちっぽけだけど、やるしね。
日本の金融システムは頑健だから？
その結果、円高が進み株価がさらにきりさがっても、"日銀の中の人"には関係ないもんね。
☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
（以下の部分は昨日書いていたものです）
白川総裁の現状認識がまともだと思えたのはわずか半年前だった。
あれから経済環境は国内外ともに大きくかわったのに、日銀の現状認識は基本的に変わっていないと思う。
[当面の金融政策運営について]
先行きについては不確実性が大きいものの、やや長い目でみれば、エネルギー・原材料価格高の影響が薄れ、海外経済も減速局面を脱するにつれて、次第に緩やかな成長経路に復していくと予想される。
→「先行き」ってのは、2年後っすかｗ それまでの下振れを見ろよ。てか、足もとの落ち込みすらも見ないつもりか？
リスク要因をみると、米欧の金融機関の破綻などを背景に国際金融資本市場の緊張が強まっており、また、世界経済には下振れリスクがある。国内民間需要については、これまでの交易条件の悪化を反映した所得形成の弱まりから下振れるリスクがある。設備・雇用面での調整圧力を抱えていないとはいえ、景気の下振れリスクには注意が必要である。
→いや、「下振れリスク」じゃなくて、すでに「景気後退」なんすけどｗｗｗｗｗ
それに、「設備・雇用面での調整圧力を抱えていない」って、まじ？失業率は4.2％からさらに上昇傾向。トヨタが期間工を削減し、新規採用を凍結、って言っているときになに言ってんだ、こいつｗｗｗ
この間、景気の下振れリスクが薄れる場合には、緩和的な金融環境の長期化が経済・物価の振幅をもたらすリスクが高まると考えられる。
→は？今の金融環境が緩和的だとでも？それが長期化すると、って言いたいの？
Q&A
現在の株価下落は世界の株価下落のなかで起きているものであります。その背景には世界の金融機関の破たんによるものである。また、交易条件の悪化によるものでもある。そういう株価の下落が経済にどういう影響を与えるかは、注意深く見ている。
→株価の上昇は上がってなくても警戒するけど、下落はどれだけ深刻でも放置。
へえーーー、
その非対称性の理由は？
ま、日銀としては資産バブルを起こすと責められけど、デフレで景気後退が深刻になって死人が続出してもその責任は問われないからねｗ
日銀文学ってのは、「幻を見る」ということですか、へぇーーー
一言でいえばウソツキ、ですね。あるいは、人殺し。
注意して見るだけでなにもしないんだったら、辞めたら？
繰り返し言うけど、ただの評論家は必要ないだけでなく、国民にとって有害なので。
☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
日経ネットPlus: [会見動画]
今回気づいたんだけど、やましい気持ちがあるときには、声のトーンが弱くなり、早口になって、語尾がゴニョゴニョする人なのね。ひとつわかったよ。
市場が崩壊して、どーーーしょうもなくなってから初めて利下げする人ね。
FEDが実質上、ゼロ金利になった以上、日米の名目金利はもはや逆転した。
最初の攻撃はいっそうの円高と。財政もちっぽけだけど、やるしね。
[ 00:25 ]
[ 欧米 ]
;)
WSJ: [Paulson to Tap Adviser to Run Rescue Program]
いまさら気づきましたが、すでにTARPのOFS（Office of Financial Stability）長官が発表されていたみたいですね。Neel Kashkari。インド系らしいけど、なんて発音するんだろ。→[Wiki]
WSJの記事は任命前の10/6のものです。
[ポールソンの危機対応チームの記事]でも出てましたね。そのときはフォークロージャー対応だった。
宇宙工学のエンジニアでNASAに関係する企業の後、ウォートンでMBA取って、GS→財務省。
昨年11月に財務省に移ったというから、その時点でポールソンが引き抜いたんだろうなぁ。
TARP案作成の中心メンバー。
才能・実力に年齢は関係ないとはいえ、これだけの大事業を35歳にまかせるか。
いや、だからこそ、年齢にこだわらずに選んだのか。
なんというか、、、歴史物語を見る気持ちになります。
Kashkariはあくまで暫定のOFS長官であり、政権交代後は続けないだろうとのこと。
立法化し、必要な機関を作るまでがポールソンの仕事。
あとは若く有能な実務家の出番、か。
いまさら気づきましたが、すでにTARPのOFS（Office of Financial Stability）長官が発表されていたみたいですね。Neel Kashkari。インド系らしいけど、なんて発音するんだろ。→[Wiki]
WSJの記事は任命前の10/6のものです。
[ポールソンの危機対応チームの記事]でも出てましたね。そのときはフォークロージャー対応だった。
宇宙工学のエンジニアでNASAに関係する企業の後、ウォートンでMBA取って、GS→財務省。
昨年11月に財務省に移ったというから、その時点でポールソンが引き抜いたんだろうなぁ。
TARP案作成の中心メンバー。
才能・実力に年齢は関係ないとはいえ、これだけの大事業を35歳にまかせるか。
いや、だからこそ、年齢にこだわらずに選んだのか。
なんというか、、、歴史物語を見る気持ちになります。
Kashkariはあくまで暫定のOFS長官であり、政権交代後は続けないだろうとのこと。
立法化し、必要な機関を作るまでがポールソンの仕事。
あとは若く有能な実務家の出番、か。
2008/10/07のBlog
[ 22:07 ]
[ 欧米 ]
うーぱー日記: [ＦＲＢ、量的緩和に移行、、、]
ご紹介だけ。そうかぁ、準備預金に付利して実質利下げと量的緩和。
言われてみればｗｗｗ
たしか以前、加藤さんの説を紹介していらっしゃったような。
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝（追記）＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
The interest rate paid on required reserve balances will be the average targeted federal funds rate established by the Federal Open Market Committee over each reserve maintenance period less 10 basis points. Paying interest on required reserve balances should essentially eliminate the opportunity cost of holding required reserves, promoting efficiency in the banking sector.
所要準備への付利は、FF-10bp。実質的にゼロ金利の開始。wha_man3さんお見事です。
超過準備は、FF-75bp
これも金融安定化法の一部で可能になったとか。
どこだったのかなぁ。TITLE II以降は無視したんで。。。
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
さらにCP買取も実施しちゃえば、でじゃびゅ。てか、真似してるよね、絶対ｗ
CR: [Possible G8 and Fed Action]
と言っているまに実施。
FRB: [The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday announced the creation of the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF)]
ご紹介だけ。そうかぁ、準備預金に付利して実質利下げと量的緩和。
言われてみればｗｗｗ
たしか以前、加藤さんの説を紹介していらっしゃったような。
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝（追記）＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
The interest rate paid on required reserve balances will be the average targeted federal funds rate established by the Federal Open Market Committee over each reserve maintenance period less 10 basis points. Paying interest on required reserve balances should essentially eliminate the opportunity cost of holding required reserves, promoting efficiency in the banking sector.
所要準備への付利は、FF-10bp。実質的にゼロ金利の開始。wha_man3さんお見事です。
超過準備は、FF-75bp
これも金融安定化法の一部で可能になったとか。
どこだったのかなぁ。TITLE II以降は無視したんで。。。
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
さらにCP買取も実施しちゃえば、でじゃびゅ。てか、真似してるよね、絶対ｗ
CR: [Possible G8 and Fed Action]
と言っているまに実施。
FRB: [The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday announced the creation of the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF)]
2008/10/06のBlog
[ 00:28 ]
[ 欧米 ]
SEC. 123. CREDIT REFORM.
これも重要ではないかと。ただ、、、よくわからん。
(a) IN GENERAL.Subject to subsection (b), the costs of purchases of troubled assets made under section 101(a) and guarantees of troubled assets under section 102, and any cash flows associated with the activities authorized in section 102 and subsections (a), (b), and (c) of section 106 shall be determined as provided under the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 (2 U.S.C. 661 et. seq.), as applicable.
(b) COSTS.For the purposes of section 502(5) of the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 (2 U.S.C. 661a(5))
(1) the cost of troubled assets and guarantees of troubled assets shall be calculated by adjusting the discount rate in section 502(5)(E) (2 U.S.C. 661a(5)(E)) for market risks; and
(2) the cost of a modification of a troubled asset or guarantee of a troubled asset shall be the difference between the current estimate consistent with paragraph (1) under the terms of the troubled asset or guarantee of the troubled asset and the current estimate consistent with paragraph (1) under the terms of the troubled asset or guarantee of the troubled asset, as modified.
ここで、section 502(5)(E)とは
§ 502(5)(E)
(E) In estimating net present values, the discount rate shall be the average interest rateon marketable Treasury securities of similar maturity to the cash flows of the direct loan orloan guarantee for which the estimate is being made.
なので、買取債権の現在価値を計算する際の割引率には、財務省証券の利回りが適用される？だとすると、結構な高値になると思うが。。。ここで言っているcostって、なんのことかなぁ。。。
SEC. 125. CONGRESSIONAL OVERSIGHT PANEL.
(e) POWERS.
(3) OBTAINING OFFICIAL DATA.The Oversight Panel may secure directly from any department or agency of the United States information necessary to enable it to carry out this section. Upon request of the Chairperson of the Oversight Panel, the head of that department or agency shall furnish that information to the Oversight Panel.
Oversight Panelのデータ、報告書は買い取り内容を知るためには重要かも。
SEC. 132. AUTHORITY TO SUSPEND MARK-TO-MARKET ACCOUNTING.
ROM人さん、お見事です。
(a) AUTHORITY.The Securities and Exchange Commission shall have the authority under the securities laws (as such term is defined in section 3(a)(47) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (15 U.S.C. 78c(a)(47)) to suspend, by rule, regulation, or order, the application of Statement Number 157 of the Financial AccountingStandards Board for any issuer (as such term is defined in section 3(a)(8) of such Act) or with respect to any class or category of transaction if the Commission determines that is necessary or appropriate in the public interest and is consistent with the protection of investors.
SEC. 133. STUDY ON MARK-TO-MARKET ACCOUNTING.
SEC. 136. TEMPORARY INCREASE IN DEPOSIT AND SHARE INSURANCE COVERAGE.
FDICの預金保護上限の引き上げなど。
(3) BORROWING LIMITS TEMPORARILY LIFTED.During the period beginning on the date of enactment of this Act and ending on December 31, 2009, the Board of Directors of the Corporation may request from the Secretary, and the Secretary shall approve, a loan or loans in an amount or amounts necessary to carry out this subsection, without regard to the limitations on such borrowing under section 14(a) and 15(c) of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act (12 U.S.C. 1824(a), 1825(c)).
FDICは財務省から無制限の借入が可能に。09年末まで。
TITLE Iは以上
これも重要ではないかと。ただ、、、よくわからん。
(a) IN GENERAL.Subject to subsection (b), the costs of purchases of troubled assets made under section 101(a) and guarantees of troubled assets under section 102, and any cash flows associated with the activities authorized in section 102 and subsections (a), (b), and (c) of section 106 shall be determined as provided under the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 (2 U.S.C. 661 et. seq.), as applicable.
(b) COSTS.For the purposes of section 502(5) of the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 (2 U.S.C. 661a(5))
(1) the cost of troubled assets and guarantees of troubled assets shall be calculated by adjusting the discount rate in section 502(5)(E) (2 U.S.C. 661a(5)(E)) for market risks; and
(2) the cost of a modification of a troubled asset or guarantee of a troubled asset shall be the difference between the current estimate consistent with paragraph (1) under the terms of the troubled asset or guarantee of the troubled asset and the current estimate consistent with paragraph (1) under the terms of the troubled asset or guarantee of the troubled asset, as modified.
ここで、section 502(5)(E)とは
§ 502(5)(E)
(E) In estimating net present values, the discount rate shall be the average interest rateon marketable Treasury securities of similar maturity to the cash flows of the direct loan orloan guarantee for which the estimate is being made.
なので、買取債権の現在価値を計算する際の割引率には、財務省証券の利回りが適用される？だとすると、結構な高値になると思うが。。。ここで言っているcostって、なんのことかなぁ。。。
SEC. 125. CONGRESSIONAL OVERSIGHT PANEL.
(e) POWERS.
(3) OBTAINING OFFICIAL DATA.The Oversight Panel may secure directly from any department or agency of the United States information necessary to enable it to carry out this section. Upon request of the Chairperson of the Oversight Panel, the head of that department or agency shall furnish that information to the Oversight Panel.
Oversight Panelのデータ、報告書は買い取り内容を知るためには重要かも。
SEC. 132. AUTHORITY TO SUSPEND MARK-TO-MARKET ACCOUNTING.
ROM人さん、お見事です。
(a) AUTHORITY.The Securities and Exchange Commission shall have the authority under the securities laws (as such term is defined in section 3(a)(47) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (15 U.S.C. 78c(a)(47)) to suspend, by rule, regulation, or order, the application of Statement Number 157 of the Financial AccountingStandards Board for any issuer (as such term is defined in section 3(a)(8) of such Act) or with respect to any class or category of transaction if the Commission determines that is necessary or appropriate in the public interest and is consistent with the protection of investors.
SEC. 133. STUDY ON MARK-TO-MARKET ACCOUNTING.
SEC. 136. TEMPORARY INCREASE IN DEPOSIT AND SHARE INSURANCE COVERAGE.
FDICの預金保護上限の引き上げなど。
(3) BORROWING LIMITS TEMPORARILY LIFTED.During the period beginning on the date of enactment of this Act and ending on December 31, 2009, the Board of Directors of the Corporation may request from the Secretary, and the Secretary shall approve, a loan or loans in an amount or amounts necessary to carry out this subsection, without regard to the limitations on such borrowing under section 14(a) and 15(c) of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act (12 U.S.C. 1824(a), 1825(c)).
FDICは財務省から無制限の借入が可能に。09年末まで。
TITLE Iは以上
2008/10/05のBlog
[ 23:40 ]
[ 欧米 ]
SEC. 113. MINIMIZATION OF LONG-TERM COSTS AND MAXIMIZATION OF BENEFITS FOR TAXPAYERS.
重要な条文。
(b)(2) maximize the efficiency of the use of taxpayer resources by using market mechanisms, including auctions or reverse auctions, where appropriate.
(c) DIRECT PURCHASES.If the Secretary determines that use of a market mechanism under subsection (b) is not feasible or appropriate, and the purposes of the Act are best met through direct purchases from an individual financial institution, the Secretary shall pursue additional measures to ensure that prices paid for assets are reasonable and reflect the underlying value of the asset.
僕は、リバース・オークションは金額的には少ないかもしれないと思っている。市場機能が正常化すれば、あえてリバース・オークションを使わずとも証券化商品価格の回復が望める（かもしれない）から。
金額的に重要なのは、後者の住宅ローン債権の直接買い取りだと思う。
(d) CONDITIONS ON PURCHASE AUTHORITY FOR WARRANTS AND DEBT INSTRUMENTS.
(1) IN GENERAL.The Secretary may not purchase, or make any commitment to purchase, any troubled asset under the authority of this Act, unless the Secretary receives from the financial institution from which such assets are to be purchased
ワラント取得が資産購入の前提。
(A) in the case of a financial institution, the securities of which are traded on a national securities exchange, a warrant giving the right to the Secretary to receive nonvoting common stock or preferred stock in such financial institution, or voting stock with respect to which, the Secretary agrees not to exercise voting power, as the Secretary determines appropriate; or
前半は議決権なしの普通株ないしは優先株を対象とするワラント。優先株対象はミソかも。
優先株対象のワラントって、行使の際に追加拠出しないのがフツーですか？
んーーー、ここに公的資本注入の可能性がある？ま、可能性は低いし、内訳次第ですね。
後半はなんだ？
議決権行使を想定せずに、普通株取得を対価として？
でもまぁ、、、"purchase"じゃなくて"receive"だからなぁ、、、資産取得と別に普通株を購入＝公的資本注入、ってわけじゃないんだろうな。。。
(E) EXERCISE PRICE.The exercise price for any warrant issued pursuant to this subsection shall be set by the Secretary, in the interest of the taxpayers.
(F) SUFFICIENCY. The financial institution shall guarantee to the Secretary that it has authorized shares of nonvoting stock available to fulfill its obligations under this subsection. Should the financial institution not have sufficient authorized shares, including preferred shares that may carry dividend rights equal to a multiple number of common shares, the Secretary may, to the extent necessary, accept a senior debt note in an amount, and on such terms as will compensate the Secretary with equivalent value, in the event that a sufficient shareholder vote to authorize the necessary additional shares cannot be obtained.
運用受託会社は、買取対象の金融機関の株式取得に制約を受けるのかなぁ。。。
だとすると、受託のモチベーションは下がるかも。
(3) EXCEPTIONS.
(A) DE MINIMIS.The Secretary shall establish de minimis exceptions to the requirements of this subsection, based on the size of the cumulative transactions of troubled assets purchased from any one financial institution for the duration of the program, at not more than $100,000,000.
累計1億ドル以下の買い取りは”些事による例外（de minimis exceptions）”。これも抜け穴？
(B) OTHER EXCEPTIONS.The Secretary shall establish an exception to the requirements of this subsection and appropriate alternative requirements for any participating financial institution that is legally prohibited from issuing securities and debt instruments, so as not to allow circumvention of the requirements of this section.
SEC. 114. MARKET TRANSPARENCY.
(a) PRICING.To facilitate market transparency, the Secretary shall make available to the public, in electronic form, a description, amounts, and pricing of assets acquired under this Act, within 2 business days of purchase, trade, or other disposition.
(b) DISCLOSURE.For each type of financial institutions that sells troubled assets to the Secretary under this Act, the Secretary shall determine whether the public disclosure required for such financial institutions with respect to off-balance sheet transactions, derivatives instruments, contingent liabilities, and similar sources of potential exposure is adequate to provide to the public sufficient information as to the true financial position of the institutions. If such disclosure is not adequate for that purpose, the Secretary shall make recommendations for additional disclosure requirements to the relevant regulators.
SEC. 115. GRADUATED AUTHORIZATION TO PURCHASE.
初期の支出上限が2500億ドル。追加で3500億ドルに引き上げるためには、大統領から議会への報告で済む。
その際、財務省は詳細な運用計画を議会に報告し、議会は15日以内に拒否権を行使しないかぎり、上限を7000億ドルに引き上げられる。
(a)(3) If, at any time after the certification in paragraph (2) has been made, the President transmits to the Congress a written report detailing the plan of the Secretary to exercise the authority under this paragraph, unless there is enacted, within 15 calendar days of such transmission, a joint resolution described in subsection (c), effective upon the expiration of such 15-day period, such authority shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time.
SEC. 116. OVERSIGHT AND AUDITS.
SEC. 119. JUDICIAL REVIEW AND RELATED MATTERS.
財務長官の行動は、憲法と司法の制約を受ける。当たり前。
SEC. 120. TERMINATION OF AUTHORITY.
(a) TERMINATION.The authorities provided under sections 101(a), excluding section 101(a)(3), and 102 shall terminate on December 31, 2009.
非常立法なので、期限が明確であることが大事。だが、sec 101(a)(3)＝OFSと、sec 102＝"Insurance of troubled assets"は例外。ま、当然だけど、資産運用は？
(b) EXTENSION UPON CERTIFICATION.The Secretary, upon submission of a written certification to Congress, may extend the authority provided under this Act to expire not later than 2 years from the date of enactment of this Act.
最長2011年末までの延長が可能。
SEC. 121. SPECIAL INSPECTOR GENERAL FOR THE TROUBLED ASSET RELIEF PROGRAM.
特別検査官を設置。この人選も注目。
重要な条文。
(b)(2) maximize the efficiency of the use of taxpayer resources by using market mechanisms, including auctions or reverse auctions, where appropriate.
(c) DIRECT PURCHASES.If the Secretary determines that use of a market mechanism under subsection (b) is not feasible or appropriate, and the purposes of the Act are best met through direct purchases from an individual financial institution, the Secretary shall pursue additional measures to ensure that prices paid for assets are reasonable and reflect the underlying value of the asset.
僕は、リバース・オークションは金額的には少ないかもしれないと思っている。市場機能が正常化すれば、あえてリバース・オークションを使わずとも証券化商品価格の回復が望める（かもしれない）から。
金額的に重要なのは、後者の住宅ローン債権の直接買い取りだと思う。
(d) CONDITIONS ON PURCHASE AUTHORITY FOR WARRANTS AND DEBT INSTRUMENTS.
(1) IN GENERAL.The Secretary may not purchase, or make any commitment to purchase, any troubled asset under the authority of this Act, unless the Secretary receives from the financial institution from which such assets are to be purchased
ワラント取得が資産購入の前提。
(A) in the case of a financial institution, the securities of which are traded on a national securities exchange, a warrant giving the right to the Secretary to receive nonvoting common stock or preferred stock in such financial institution, or voting stock with respect to which, the Secretary agrees not to exercise voting power, as the Secretary determines appropriate; or
前半は議決権なしの普通株ないしは優先株を対象とするワラント。優先株対象はミソかも。
優先株対象のワラントって、行使の際に追加拠出しないのがフツーですか？
んーーー、ここに公的資本注入の可能性がある？ま、可能性は低いし、内訳次第ですね。
後半はなんだ？
議決権行使を想定せずに、普通株取得を対価として？
でもまぁ、、、"purchase"じゃなくて"receive"だからなぁ、、、資産取得と別に普通株を購入＝公的資本注入、ってわけじゃないんだろうな。。。
(E) EXERCISE PRICE.The exercise price for any warrant issued pursuant to this subsection shall be set by the Secretary, in the interest of the taxpayers.
(F) SUFFICIENCY. The financial institution shall guarantee to the Secretary that it has authorized shares of nonvoting stock available to fulfill its obligations under this subsection. Should the financial institution not have sufficient authorized shares, including preferred shares that may carry dividend rights equal to a multiple number of common shares, the Secretary may, to the extent necessary, accept a senior debt note in an amount, and on such terms as will compensate the Secretary with equivalent value, in the event that a sufficient shareholder vote to authorize the necessary additional shares cannot be obtained.
運用受託会社は、買取対象の金融機関の株式取得に制約を受けるのかなぁ。。。
だとすると、受託のモチベーションは下がるかも。
(3) EXCEPTIONS.
(A) DE MINIMIS.The Secretary shall establish de minimis exceptions to the requirements of this subsection, based on the size of the cumulative transactions of troubled assets purchased from any one financial institution for the duration of the program, at not more than $100,000,000.
累計1億ドル以下の買い取りは”些事による例外（de minimis exceptions）”。これも抜け穴？
(B) OTHER EXCEPTIONS.The Secretary shall establish an exception to the requirements of this subsection and appropriate alternative requirements for any participating financial institution that is legally prohibited from issuing securities and debt instruments, so as not to allow circumvention of the requirements of this section.
SEC. 114. MARKET TRANSPARENCY.
(a) PRICING.To facilitate market transparency, the Secretary shall make available to the public, in electronic form, a description, amounts, and pricing of assets acquired under this Act, within 2 business days of purchase, trade, or other disposition.
(b) DISCLOSURE.For each type of financial institutions that sells troubled assets to the Secretary under this Act, the Secretary shall determine whether the public disclosure required for such financial institutions with respect to off-balance sheet transactions, derivatives instruments, contingent liabilities, and similar sources of potential exposure is adequate to provide to the public sufficient information as to the true financial position of the institutions. If such disclosure is not adequate for that purpose, the Secretary shall make recommendations for additional disclosure requirements to the relevant regulators.
SEC. 115. GRADUATED AUTHORIZATION TO PURCHASE.
初期の支出上限が2500億ドル。追加で3500億ドルに引き上げるためには、大統領から議会への報告で済む。
その際、財務省は詳細な運用計画を議会に報告し、議会は15日以内に拒否権を行使しないかぎり、上限を7000億ドルに引き上げられる。
(a)(3) If, at any time after the certification in paragraph (2) has been made, the President transmits to the Congress a written report detailing the plan of the Secretary to exercise the authority under this paragraph, unless there is enacted, within 15 calendar days of such transmission, a joint resolution described in subsection (c), effective upon the expiration of such 15-day period, such authority shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time.
SEC. 116. OVERSIGHT AND AUDITS.
SEC. 119. JUDICIAL REVIEW AND RELATED MATTERS.
財務長官の行動は、憲法と司法の制約を受ける。当たり前。
SEC. 120. TERMINATION OF AUTHORITY.
(a) TERMINATION.The authorities provided under sections 101(a), excluding section 101(a)(3), and 102 shall terminate on December 31, 2009.
非常立法なので、期限が明確であることが大事。だが、sec 101(a)(3)＝OFSと、sec 102＝"Insurance of troubled assets"は例外。ま、当然だけど、資産運用は？
(b) EXTENSION UPON CERTIFICATION.The Secretary, upon submission of a written certification to Congress, may extend the authority provided under this Act to expire not later than 2 years from the date of enactment of this Act.
最長2011年末までの延長が可能。
SEC. 121. SPECIAL INSPECTOR GENERAL FOR THE TROUBLED ASSET RELIEF PROGRAM.
特別検査官を設置。この人選も注目。
[ 22:04 ]
[ 欧米 ]
SEC. 107. CONTRACTING PROCEDURES.
(a) STREAMLINED PROCESS.For purposes of this Act, the Secretary may waive specific provisions of the Federal Acquisition Regulation upon a determination that urgent and compelling circumstances make compliance with such provisions contrary to the public interest.
これって、、、とんでもない非常大権じゃね？法を無視できるか、、、
SEC. 108. CONFLICTS OF INTEREST.
利益相反についてはガイドライン待ち。
SEC. 109. FORECLOSURE MITIGATION EFFORTS.
(a)・・・In addition, the Secretary may use loan guarantees and credit enhancements to facilitate loan modifications to prevent avoidable foreclosures.
MODSの香り。
(c) CONSENT TO REASONABLE LOAN MODIFICATION REQUESTS.Upon any request arising under existing investment contracts, the Secretary shall consent, where appropriate, and considering net present value to the taxpayer, to reasonable requests for loss mitigation measures, including term extensions, rate reductions, principal write downs, increases in the proportion of loans within a trust or other structure allowed to be modified, or removal of other limitation on modifications.
モーゲージの契約内容の変更権も財務省に与える。
これはローン債権を念頭に置いたものか？MBSの債権関係の変更には立ち入れないと思うので。
問題は、この変更権限をポールソンが行使するつもりがあるかどうか。
SEC. 110. ASSISTANCE TO HOMEOWNERS.
MODSの拡大、法制化。FDICのみならず、FHFA（FNM、FREのconservator）、FRBのオペ以外に保有しているモーゲージ、MBS、MBS関連証券にまで拡大。
法施行以後、60日以内の実施が求められる。
(c) ACTIONS WITH RESPECT TO SERVICERS.In any case in which a Federal property manager is not the owner of a residential mortgage loan, but holds an interest in obligations or pools of obligations secured by residential mortgage loans, the Federal property manager shall
(1) encourage implementation by the loan servicers of loan modifications developed under subsection (b); and
(2) assist in facilitating any such modifications, to the extent possible.
サービサーに対する"assist"って何だ？金銭的な支援も含むのか？
SEC. 111. EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE.
(2) CRITERIA.The standards required under this subsection shall include
(A) limits on compensation that exclude incentives for senior executive officers of a financial institution to take unnecessary and excessive risks that threaten the value of the financial institution during the period that the Secretary holds an equity or debt position in the financial institution;
一応、財務省がエクイティとデットを保有する期間は報酬制限するということになっているが、、、
(B) a provision for the recovery by the financial institution of any bonus or incentive compensation paid to a senior executive officer based on statements of earnings, gains, or other criteria that are later proven to be materially inaccurate; and
事後的に、報酬の不適切さを証明するのは無理。これも抜け穴。
(C) a prohibition on the financial institution making any golden parachute payment to its senior executive officer during the period that the Secretary holds an equity or debt position in the financial institution.
財務省がワラント、デットを保有する期間に付与された”ゴールデン・パラシュート”は規制される。しかし、それ以前、以後のものは対象外。
これは、資産買い取りに応じるインセンティブは保たれるが、買取に応じた金融機関のエグゼクティブになりたいというインセンティブは削がれる。
米金融機関の競争力を維持するためには、財務省は保有債権を満期まで保有するのではなく、早期売却を迫られるかもしれない。まぁ、財務省が売りに回るとしても、それはサブプラ関連市場が安定したのち、すなわち住宅価格の底打ちが確認されて以降、ということになるだろう。
(c) AUCTION PURCHASES.Where the Secretary determines that the purposes of this Act are best met through auction purchases of troubled assets, and only where such purchases per financial institution in the aggregate exceed $300,000,000 (including direct purchases), the Secretary shall prohibit, for such financial institution, any new employment contract with a senior executive officer that provides a golden parachute in the event of an involuntary termination, bankruptcy filing, insolvency, or receivership. The Secretary shall issue guidance to carry out this paragraph not later than 2 months after the date of enactment of this Act, and such guidance shall be effective upon issuance.
これも気になる一文。3億ドル以上の購入の場合にゴールデン・パラシュートが制限されるとしても、ガイドラインの発行は2カ月以内。それまでに購入された場合には、ストック・オプションの制限の対象外か？
もしそうなら、法の施行後45-60日に買取が集中するかもしれない。11月下旬？
SEC. 112. COORDINATION WITH FOREIGN AUTHORITIES AND CENTRAL BANKS.
The Secretary shall coordinate, as appropriate, with foreign financial authorities and central banks to work toward the establishment of similar programs by such authorities and central banks. To the extent that such foreign financial authorities or banks hold troubled assets as a result of extending financing to financial institutions that have failed or defaulted on such financing, such troubled assets qualify for purchase under section 101.
まぁ、気持はわからんでもないがｗ、余計なお世話っちゅーか、テメーのケツはテメーで拭け、と言いたくなる。
(a) STREAMLINED PROCESS.For purposes of this Act, the Secretary may waive specific provisions of the Federal Acquisition Regulation upon a determination that urgent and compelling circumstances make compliance with such provisions contrary to the public interest.
これって、、、とんでもない非常大権じゃね？法を無視できるか、、、
SEC. 108. CONFLICTS OF INTEREST.
利益相反についてはガイドライン待ち。
SEC. 109. FORECLOSURE MITIGATION EFFORTS.
(a)・・・In addition, the Secretary may use loan guarantees and credit enhancements to facilitate loan modifications to prevent avoidable foreclosures.
MODSの香り。
(c) CONSENT TO REASONABLE LOAN MODIFICATION REQUESTS.Upon any request arising under existing investment contracts, the Secretary shall consent, where appropriate, and considering net present value to the taxpayer, to reasonable requests for loss mitigation measures, including term extensions, rate reductions, principal write downs, increases in the proportion of loans within a trust or other structure allowed to be modified, or removal of other limitation on modifications.
モーゲージの契約内容の変更権も財務省に与える。
これはローン債権を念頭に置いたものか？MBSの債権関係の変更には立ち入れないと思うので。
問題は、この変更権限をポールソンが行使するつもりがあるかどうか。
SEC. 110. ASSISTANCE TO HOMEOWNERS.
MODSの拡大、法制化。FDICのみならず、FHFA（FNM、FREのconservator）、FRBのオペ以外に保有しているモーゲージ、MBS、MBS関連証券にまで拡大。
法施行以後、60日以内の実施が求められる。
(c) ACTIONS WITH RESPECT TO SERVICERS.In any case in which a Federal property manager is not the owner of a residential mortgage loan, but holds an interest in obligations or pools of obligations secured by residential mortgage loans, the Federal property manager shall
(1) encourage implementation by the loan servicers of loan modifications developed under subsection (b); and
(2) assist in facilitating any such modifications, to the extent possible.
サービサーに対する"assist"って何だ？金銭的な支援も含むのか？
SEC. 111. EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE.
(2) CRITERIA.The standards required under this subsection shall include
(A) limits on compensation that exclude incentives for senior executive officers of a financial institution to take unnecessary and excessive risks that threaten the value of the financial institution during the period that the Secretary holds an equity or debt position in the financial institution;
一応、財務省がエクイティとデットを保有する期間は報酬制限するということになっているが、、、
(B) a provision for the recovery by the financial institution of any bonus or incentive compensation paid to a senior executive officer based on statements of earnings, gains, or other criteria that are later proven to be materially inaccurate; and
事後的に、報酬の不適切さを証明するのは無理。これも抜け穴。
(C) a prohibition on the financial institution making any golden parachute payment to its senior executive officer during the period that the Secretary holds an equity or debt position in the financial institution.
財務省がワラント、デットを保有する期間に付与された”ゴールデン・パラシュート”は規制される。しかし、それ以前、以後のものは対象外。
これは、資産買い取りに応じるインセンティブは保たれるが、買取に応じた金融機関のエグゼクティブになりたいというインセンティブは削がれる。
米金融機関の競争力を維持するためには、財務省は保有債権を満期まで保有するのではなく、早期売却を迫られるかもしれない。まぁ、財務省が売りに回るとしても、それはサブプラ関連市場が安定したのち、すなわち住宅価格の底打ちが確認されて以降、ということになるだろう。
(c) AUCTION PURCHASES.Where the Secretary determines that the purposes of this Act are best met through auction purchases of troubled assets, and only where such purchases per financial institution in the aggregate exceed $300,000,000 (including direct purchases), the Secretary shall prohibit, for such financial institution, any new employment contract with a senior executive officer that provides a golden parachute in the event of an involuntary termination, bankruptcy filing, insolvency, or receivership. The Secretary shall issue guidance to carry out this paragraph not later than 2 months after the date of enactment of this Act, and such guidance shall be effective upon issuance.
これも気になる一文。3億ドル以上の購入の場合にゴールデン・パラシュートが制限されるとしても、ガイドラインの発行は2カ月以内。それまでに購入された場合には、ストック・オプションの制限の対象外か？
もしそうなら、法の施行後45-60日に買取が集中するかもしれない。11月下旬？
SEC. 112. COORDINATION WITH FOREIGN AUTHORITIES AND CENTRAL BANKS.
The Secretary shall coordinate, as appropriate, with foreign financial authorities and central banks to work toward the establishment of similar programs by such authorities and central banks. To the extent that such foreign financial authorities or banks hold troubled assets as a result of extending financing to financial institutions that have failed or defaulted on such financing, such troubled assets qualify for purchase under section 101.
まぁ、気持はわからんでもないがｗ、余計なお世話っちゅーか、テメーのケツはテメーで拭け、と言いたくなる。
[ 19:43 ]
[ 欧米 ]
[法]
②以降はないかもｗ 大杉
SEC. 3. 定義
(5) FINANCIAL INSTITUTION.The term ‘‘financial institution’’ means any institution, including, but not limited to, any bank, savings association, credit union, security broker or dealer, or insurance company, established and regulated under the laws of the United States or any State, territory, or pos ession of the United States, the District of Colum bia, Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, American Samoa, or the United States Virgin Islands, and having significant operations in the United States, but excluding any central bank of, or institution owned by, a foreign government.
年金基金も含まれるってNYTは書いていたなー。。。HFはどうなんだろ？
any insutitution, but not limited to って、、、HF込みかなぁ。。。ハゲタカ大喜び？
買取対象資産の定義次第だな。8月以前に購入された資産、ということになれば。。。
(9) TROUBLED ASSETS.The term ‘‘troubled assets’’ means
(A) residential or commercial mortgages and any securities, obligations, or other instruments that are based on or related to such mortgages, that in each case was originated or issued on or before March 14, 2008, the purchase of which the Secretary determines promotes financial market stability; and
(B) any other financial instrument that the Secretary, after consultation with the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, determines the purchase of which is necessary to promote financial market stability, but only upon transmittal of such determination, in writing, to the appropriate committees of Congress.
買取対象はポールソンの望みのままに。ただし、買取の度に議会に報告するか。
TITILE I TARP
SEC. 101. PURCHASES OF TROUBLED ASSETS.
(a) OFFICES; AUTHORITY.
(1) AUTHORITY.The Secretary is authorized to establish the Troubled Asset Relief Program (or ‘‘TARP’’) to purchase, and to make and fund commitments to purchase, troubled assets from any financial institution, on such terms and conditions as are determined by the Secretary, and in accordance with this Act and the policies and procedures developed and published by the Secretary.
(3) ESTABLISHMENT OF TREASURY OFFICE.
(A) IN GENERAL.The Secretary shall implement any program under paragraph (1) through an Office of Financial Stability, established for such purpose within the Office of Domestic Finance of the Department of the Treasury, which office shall be headed by an Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, appointed by the President, by and with the advice and consent of the Senate, except that an interim Assistant Secretary may be appointed by the Secretary.
新組織はOFS。初代長官の任命権もポールソン。
(c) NECESSARY ACTIONS
(3) Designating financial institutions as financial agents of the Federal Government, and such institutions shall perform all such reasonable duties related to this Act as financial agents of the Federal Government as may be required.
運用受託会社も法の目的に合致した行動が求められる。
(4) In order to provide the Secretary with the flexibility to manage troubled assets in a manner designed to minimize cost to the taxpayers, establishing vehicles that are authorized, subject to supervision by the Secretary, to purchase, hold, and sell troubled assets and issue obligations.
(d) PROGRAM GUIDELINES.Before the earlier of the end of the 2-business-day period beginning on the date of the first purchase of troubled assets pursuant to the authority under this section or the end of the 45-day period beginning on the date of enactment of this Act, the Secretary shall publish program guidelines, including the following:
(1) Mechanisms for purchasing troubled assets.
(2) Methods for pricing and valuing troubled assets.
(3) Procedures for selecting asset managers.
(4) Criteria for identifying troubled assets for purchase.
ガイドラインの公表は、最初の買い取りの2日前、ないしは法の施行より45日以内。NYTの6週間の根拠はこれか。
メカニズム、価格、買取対象選定基準などの詳細は、ガイドラインに記述される。
(e) PREVENTING UNJUST ENRICHMENT.In making purchases under the authority of this Act, the Secretary shall take such steps as may be necessary to prevent unjust enrichment of financial institutions participating in a program established under this section, including by preventing the sale of a troubled asset to the Secretary at a higher price than what the seller paid to purchase the asset. This subsection does not apply to troubled assets acquired in a merger or acquisition, or a purchase of as sets from a financial institution in conservatorship or receivership, or that has initiated bankruptcy proceedings under title 11, United States Code.
資産保有者の購入価格を上回ってはならない。それはいいんだけど、、、
後半はなんだ？WBは対象外か？それとも高値で買うということか？WMも？This subsection って、なんのことだぁ。。。？
SEC. 102. INSURANCE OF TROUBLED ASSETS.
(a) AUTHORITY.
(1) IN GENERAL.If the Secretary establishes the program authorized under section 101, then the Secretary shall establish a program to guarantee troubled assets originated or issued prior to March 14, 2008, including mortgage-backed securities.
(2) GUARANTEES.In establishing any program under this subsection, the Secretary may develop guarantees of troubled assets and the associated premiums for such guarantees. Such guarantees and premiums may be determined by category or class of the troubled assets to be guaranteed.
(3) EXTENT OF GUARANTEE.Upon request of a financial institution, the Secretary may guarantee the timely payment of principal of, and interest on, troubled assets in amounts not to exceed 100 percent of such payments. Such guarantee may be on such terms and conditions as are determined by the Secretary, provided that such terms and conditions are consistent with the purposes of this Act.
これが、このスキームのキモの１つかな？
これは、モーゲージからの元利支払いの一部（大部分？）を財務省が保証するというものか？モーゲージ債権（ローン）の毀損を財務省が負担するのか？
だとすると、、、WBはおいしいか？
(c) PREMIUMS.
(1) IN GENERAL.The Secretary shall collect premiums from any financial institution participating in the program established under subsection (a). Such premiums shall be in an amount that the Secretary determines necessary to meet the purposes of this Act and to provide sufficient reserves pursuant to paragraph (3).
(3) MINIMUM LEVEL.The premiums referred to in paragraph (1) shall be set by the Secretary at a level necessary to create reserves sufficient to meet anticipated claims, based on an actuarial analysis, and to ensure that taxpayers are fully protected.
(d) TROUBLED ASSETS INSURANCE FINANCING FUND.
SEC. 105. REPORTS.
(b)(2) TIMING.The report required by this subsection shall be submitted not later than 7 days after the date on which commitments to purchase troubled assets under the authorities provided in this Act first reach an aggregate of $50,000,000,000 and not later than 7 days after each $50,000,000,000 interval of such commitments is reached thereafter.
最初の報告義務は500億ドルから。
(c) REGULATORY MODERNIZATION REPORT.The Secretary shall review the current state of the financial markets and the regulatory system and submit a written report to the appropriate committees of Congress not later than April 30, 2009, analyzing the current state of the regulatory system and its effectiveness at overseeing the participants in the financial markets, including the overthe-counter swaps market and government-sponsored enterprises, and providing recommendations for improvement, including
最初のポートフォリオ分析は4/30。それまでには市場環境が改善しているとでも？
時価評価したときに、購入価格から大きく毀損している場合、政治問題になりかねないが。。。
②以降はないかもｗ 大杉
SEC. 3. 定義
(5) FINANCIAL INSTITUTION.The term ‘‘financial institution’’ means any institution, including, but not limited to, any bank, savings association, credit union, security broker or dealer, or insurance company, established and regulated under the laws of the United States or any State, territory, or pos ession of the United States, the District of Colum bia, Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, American Samoa, or the United States Virgin Islands, and having significant operations in the United States, but excluding any central bank of, or institution owned by, a foreign government.
年金基金も含まれるってNYTは書いていたなー。。。HFはどうなんだろ？
any insutitution, but not limited to って、、、HF込みかなぁ。。。ハゲタカ大喜び？
買取対象資産の定義次第だな。8月以前に購入された資産、ということになれば。。。
(9) TROUBLED ASSETS.The term ‘‘troubled assets’’ means
(A) residential or commercial mortgages and any securities, obligations, or other instruments that are based on or related to such mortgages, that in each case was originated or issued on or before March 14, 2008, the purchase of which the Secretary determines promotes financial market stability; and
(B) any other financial instrument that the Secretary, after consultation with the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, determines the purchase of which is necessary to promote financial market stability, but only upon transmittal of such determination, in writing, to the appropriate committees of Congress.
買取対象はポールソンの望みのままに。ただし、買取の度に議会に報告するか。
TITILE I TARP
SEC. 101. PURCHASES OF TROUBLED ASSETS.
(a) OFFICES; AUTHORITY.
(1) AUTHORITY.The Secretary is authorized to establish the Troubled Asset Relief Program (or ‘‘TARP’’) to purchase, and to make and fund commitments to purchase, troubled assets from any financial institution, on such terms and conditions as are determined by the Secretary, and in accordance with this Act and the policies and procedures developed and published by the Secretary.
(3) ESTABLISHMENT OF TREASURY OFFICE.
(A) IN GENERAL.The Secretary shall implement any program under paragraph (1) through an Office of Financial Stability, established for such purpose within the Office of Domestic Finance of the Department of the Treasury, which office shall be headed by an Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, appointed by the President, by and with the advice and consent of the Senate, except that an interim Assistant Secretary may be appointed by the Secretary.
新組織はOFS。初代長官の任命権もポールソン。
(c) NECESSARY ACTIONS
(3) Designating financial institutions as financial agents of the Federal Government, and such institutions shall perform all such reasonable duties related to this Act as financial agents of the Federal Government as may be required.
運用受託会社も法の目的に合致した行動が求められる。
(4) In order to provide the Secretary with the flexibility to manage troubled assets in a manner designed to minimize cost to the taxpayers, establishing vehicles that are authorized, subject to supervision by the Secretary, to purchase, hold, and sell troubled assets and issue obligations.
(d) PROGRAM GUIDELINES.Before the earlier of the end of the 2-business-day period beginning on the date of the first purchase of troubled assets pursuant to the authority under this section or the end of the 45-day period beginning on the date of enactment of this Act, the Secretary shall publish program guidelines, including the following:
(1) Mechanisms for purchasing troubled assets.
(2) Methods for pricing and valuing troubled assets.
(3) Procedures for selecting asset managers.
(4) Criteria for identifying troubled assets for purchase.
ガイドラインの公表は、最初の買い取りの2日前、ないしは法の施行より45日以内。NYTの6週間の根拠はこれか。
メカニズム、価格、買取対象選定基準などの詳細は、ガイドラインに記述される。
(e) PREVENTING UNJUST ENRICHMENT.In making purchases under the authority of this Act, the Secretary shall take such steps as may be necessary to prevent unjust enrichment of financial institutions participating in a program established under this section, including by preventing the sale of a troubled asset to the Secretary at a higher price than what the seller paid to purchase the asset. This subsection does not apply to troubled assets acquired in a merger or acquisition, or a purchase of as sets from a financial institution in conservatorship or receivership, or that has initiated bankruptcy proceedings under title 11, United States Code.
資産保有者の購入価格を上回ってはならない。それはいいんだけど、、、
後半はなんだ？WBは対象外か？それとも高値で買うということか？WMも？This subsection って、なんのことだぁ。。。？
SEC. 102. INSURANCE OF TROUBLED ASSETS.
(a) AUTHORITY.
(1) IN GENERAL.If the Secretary establishes the program authorized under section 101, then the Secretary shall establish a program to guarantee troubled assets originated or issued prior to March 14, 2008, including mortgage-backed securities.
(2) GUARANTEES.In establishing any program under this subsection, the Secretary may develop guarantees of troubled assets and the associated premiums for such guarantees. Such guarantees and premiums may be determined by category or class of the troubled assets to be guaranteed.
(3) EXTENT OF GUARANTEE.Upon request of a financial institution, the Secretary may guarantee the timely payment of principal of, and interest on, troubled assets in amounts not to exceed 100 percent of such payments. Such guarantee may be on such terms and conditions as are determined by the Secretary, provided that such terms and conditions are consistent with the purposes of this Act.
これが、このスキームのキモの１つかな？
これは、モーゲージからの元利支払いの一部（大部分？）を財務省が保証するというものか？モーゲージ債権（ローン）の毀損を財務省が負担するのか？
だとすると、、、WBはおいしいか？
(c) PREMIUMS.
(1) IN GENERAL.The Secretary shall collect premiums from any financial institution participating in the program established under subsection (a). Such premiums shall be in an amount that the Secretary determines necessary to meet the purposes of this Act and to provide sufficient reserves pursuant to paragraph (3).
(3) MINIMUM LEVEL.The premiums referred to in paragraph (1) shall be set by the Secretary at a level necessary to create reserves sufficient to meet anticipated claims, based on an actuarial analysis, and to ensure that taxpayers are fully protected.
(d) TROUBLED ASSETS INSURANCE FINANCING FUND.
SEC. 105. REPORTS.
(b)(2) TIMING.The report required by this subsection shall be submitted not later than 7 days after the date on which commitments to purchase troubled assets under the authorities provided in this Act first reach an aggregate of $50,000,000,000 and not later than 7 days after each $50,000,000,000 interval of such commitments is reached thereafter.
最初の報告義務は500億ドルから。
(c) REGULATORY MODERNIZATION REPORT.The Secretary shall review the current state of the financial markets and the regulatory system and submit a written report to the appropriate committees of Congress not later than April 30, 2009, analyzing the current state of the regulatory system and its effectiveness at overseeing the participants in the financial markets, including the overthe-counter swaps market and government-sponsored enterprises, and providing recommendations for improvement, including
最初のポートフォリオ分析は4/30。それまでには市場環境が改善しているとでも？
時価評価したときに、購入価格から大きく毀損している場合、政治問題になりかねないが。。。
2008/10/04のBlog
[ 23:47 ]
[ 欧米 ]
紹介というほど読んでませんが、、、結構なボリュームなので。
Banque de France: [Financial Stability Review, Feb 2008]
このp.95以降に、
Market liquidity and banking liquidity: linkages, vulnerabilities and the role of disclosure
というレポートがあって、ここに欧州個別行のファンディング状況がちょっと乗っている。
7月に宿題を頂いて見つけていたんですが、いざ個別行の財務内容を調べようとするとディスクロージャーが分かりにくくて、、、挫折してました。
Banque de France: [Financial Stability Review, Feb 2008]
このp.95以降に、
Market liquidity and banking liquidity: linkages, vulnerabilities and the role of disclosure
というレポートがあって、ここに欧州個別行のファンディング状況がちょっと乗っている。
7月に宿題を頂いて見つけていたんですが、いざ個別行の財務内容を調べようとするとディスクロージャーが分かりにくくて、、、挫折してました。
;)
んで、こういった表が載っている。
右はじは僕がくっつけた株価水準で、07年初に対する今の株価です。下線付きはADRを出しているところ。
フォルティスは資本（Equity）が少なくて、やべーのかなぁ、くらいにしか思ってませんでした。
左の表はファンディングの内訳で、BNPとSoGenのフランス2行の市場依存の高さが目につく。これがサルコジが慌てふためいている理由なんだろうな。。。
SoGenはEquityも高くはないし。
Equityを含めた資本の少なさではINGも怪しいっすよね。
2番目の表は資産サイドの流動性で、INGはここでも低い。
INGは保険もやっているけど、CDSが直撃しなきゃいいけど。。。
☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
上のレポートは決済制度なども含めて興味深い文献が満載なんだけど、p.29にはBlackRockのPeter Fisherという人が今回の金融危機について書いている。
このレポートが今年2月号なので2007年夏の危機について書いているが、今の状況についても十分な示唆をくれていると思う。Fisherという人は、BIS→FRBNY→財務省→BlackRockという経歴らしい。
彼は、金融市場でのLIBORやEURIBORの急上昇は借り手の信用不安によるものというよりも、貸し手自身の財務内容に対する不安によるものだと指摘している。その理由は、SIVなどのオフバラ戦略によって遮断したはずのリスクが自らに跳ね返ってくるなど、銀行自身のリスク管理の失敗によって、貸し手自身が自らのリスク量を理解できていないからだとの見解。
また、信用不安の局面では、安定した時期と同等のインターバンク金利を期待するのはそもそもむずかしいことだと考えている。
Much of the initial attention by central banks and the authorities focused on the LIBOR and EURIBOR inter-bank lending markets and was premised on the belief that the market was “broken” and needed to be “fixed.” This approach is problematic on two levels.
First, the very concept of a uniform inter-bank borrowing rate is a function of good times, and tends to come under pressure when the cycle turns. In the 1970s the short-term liabilities of the clearinghouse banks in the United States traded at the same levels but this consistency fell apart in the turbulence of the 1980s. The famous “convoy” of Japanese banks credit risks.
Second, elevated inter-bank borrowing costs should not be thought of as the disease itself but, rather, as the symptom. The initial rise in borrowing spreads was ascribed to uncertainty about asset values causing concern about the credit quality of borrowers, leading lenders to both raise rates and cut back on the quantities they were willing to extend. Given this credit premium, adding excess central bank reserves and lowering rates, by adding to the supply of liquidity, would presumably encourage lenders to make short-term credit available to borrowers. There is much to this line of analysis but it is critically incomplete.
Potential lenders were certainly concerned about the borrowers’ credit quality and this was particularly evident in the withdrawal of support from the ABCP market. But the sudden rise in inter-bank borrowing costs, and the continued scarcity of short-term secured and unsecured funding, is much more a reflection of lenders’ anxieties about their own asset quality and their own balance sheets. The rapid and synchronized back up in borrowing costs in Dollar, Sterling, and Euro inter-bank markets strongly suggests a linkage across the balance sheets of the major lenders, who operate in all three markets. Thus, even initially, the strains in money markets should be understood as significantly reflecting a lenders’ strike by the major financial intermediaries who are themselves borrowers, lenders and investors in the very same credit instruments.
☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
僕は短期金融市場が非常に重要だということはわかりますが、個別の状況を把握していないし、業務経験もない。そしてなによりもこうした見解について意見を述べるほどの見識を持ち合わせていません。
残念ながら。。。
ともあれ、フランス銀行の英語レポートは掘り出し物でしたよ。量は多くないけれど、生産性分析とか興味深いものが多かった。
ほとんど読んでないけれどｗ
右はじは僕がくっつけた株価水準で、07年初に対する今の株価です。下線付きはADRを出しているところ。
フォルティスは資本（Equity）が少なくて、やべーのかなぁ、くらいにしか思ってませんでした。
左の表はファンディングの内訳で、BNPとSoGenのフランス2行の市場依存の高さが目につく。これがサルコジが慌てふためいている理由なんだろうな。。。
SoGenはEquityも高くはないし。
Equityを含めた資本の少なさではINGも怪しいっすよね。
2番目の表は資産サイドの流動性で、INGはここでも低い。
INGは保険もやっているけど、CDSが直撃しなきゃいいけど。。。
☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
上のレポートは決済制度なども含めて興味深い文献が満載なんだけど、p.29にはBlackRockのPeter Fisherという人が今回の金融危機について書いている。
このレポートが今年2月号なので2007年夏の危機について書いているが、今の状況についても十分な示唆をくれていると思う。Fisherという人は、BIS→FRBNY→財務省→BlackRockという経歴らしい。
彼は、金融市場でのLIBORやEURIBORの急上昇は借り手の信用不安によるものというよりも、貸し手自身の財務内容に対する不安によるものだと指摘している。その理由は、SIVなどのオフバラ戦略によって遮断したはずのリスクが自らに跳ね返ってくるなど、銀行自身のリスク管理の失敗によって、貸し手自身が自らのリスク量を理解できていないからだとの見解。
また、信用不安の局面では、安定した時期と同等のインターバンク金利を期待するのはそもそもむずかしいことだと考えている。
Much of the initial attention by central banks and the authorities focused on the LIBOR and EURIBOR inter-bank lending markets and was premised on the belief that the market was “broken” and needed to be “fixed.” This approach is problematic on two levels.
First, the very concept of a uniform inter-bank borrowing rate is a function of good times, and tends to come under pressure when the cycle turns. In the 1970s the short-term liabilities of the clearinghouse banks in the United States traded at the same levels but this consistency fell apart in the turbulence of the 1980s. The famous “convoy” of Japanese banks credit risks.
Second, elevated inter-bank borrowing costs should not be thought of as the disease itself but, rather, as the symptom. The initial rise in borrowing spreads was ascribed to uncertainty about asset values causing concern about the credit quality of borrowers, leading lenders to both raise rates and cut back on the quantities they were willing to extend. Given this credit premium, adding excess central bank reserves and lowering rates, by adding to the supply of liquidity, would presumably encourage lenders to make short-term credit available to borrowers. There is much to this line of analysis but it is critically incomplete.
Potential lenders were certainly concerned about the borrowers’ credit quality and this was particularly evident in the withdrawal of support from the ABCP market. But the sudden rise in inter-bank borrowing costs, and the continued scarcity of short-term secured and unsecured funding, is much more a reflection of lenders’ anxieties about their own asset quality and their own balance sheets. The rapid and synchronized back up in borrowing costs in Dollar, Sterling, and Euro inter-bank markets strongly suggests a linkage across the balance sheets of the major lenders, who operate in all three markets. Thus, even initially, the strains in money markets should be understood as significantly reflecting a lenders’ strike by the major financial intermediaries who are themselves borrowers, lenders and investors in the very same credit instruments.
☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
僕は短期金融市場が非常に重要だということはわかりますが、個別の状況を把握していないし、業務経験もない。そしてなによりもこうした見解について意見を述べるほどの見識を持ち合わせていません。
残念ながら。。。
ともあれ、フランス銀行の英語レポートは掘り出し物でしたよ。量は多くないけれど、生産性分析とか興味深いものが多かった。
ほとんど読んでないけれどｗ
[ 13:36 ]
[ 欧米 ]
[For Treasury Dept., Now Comes the Hard Part]
やはりNYTの記事がよさそう。
概要は、、、
”買い取り”はすくなくとも6週間、あるいは11/4の大統領選後までは始まらない。
財務省は20数名の専属スタッフを形成し、資産運用は5-10社ほどに委託される。
運用委託のガイドラインは2日以内に財務省から公表される。
BlackRock, PIMCO, Legg Masonが財務省から内々に打診を受けた模様。
委託先の選定は、フィー低減のために入札形式にするかもしれない。
買い取りのメインな仕組みはリバース・オークションだが、証券化以外のモーゲージ債権を買い取るときには個々の銀行との個別交渉をするかもしれない。
Treasury officials have emphasized that the government will also be buying up whole mortgages, which have not been securitized, and that it may well buy whole mortgages through one-on-one negotiations with individual banks. Officials said they would probably experiment with other approaches as well.
さらに、資産を売る銀行や年金基金と運用会社との利益相反をどうやって処理するかが難しい問題だとの指摘も。
購入対象資産の選定を財務省が行うのかそれとも運用会社がおこなうのかは、この記事からは不明。
法は[これ]ですが未読です。。。
今回のスキームを具体的に調べているサイトなどがあったら、ぜひ教えてください。
やはりNYTの記事がよさそう。
概要は、、、
”買い取り”はすくなくとも6週間、あるいは11/4の大統領選後までは始まらない。
財務省は20数名の専属スタッフを形成し、資産運用は5-10社ほどに委託される。
運用委託のガイドラインは2日以内に財務省から公表される。
BlackRock, PIMCO, Legg Masonが財務省から内々に打診を受けた模様。
委託先の選定は、フィー低減のために入札形式にするかもしれない。
買い取りのメインな仕組みはリバース・オークションだが、証券化以外のモーゲージ債権を買い取るときには個々の銀行との個別交渉をするかもしれない。
Treasury officials have emphasized that the government will also be buying up whole mortgages, which have not been securitized, and that it may well buy whole mortgages through one-on-one negotiations with individual banks. Officials said they would probably experiment with other approaches as well.
さらに、資産を売る銀行や年金基金と運用会社との利益相反をどうやって処理するかが難しい問題だとの指摘も。
購入対象資産の選定を財務省が行うのかそれとも運用会社がおこなうのかは、この記事からは不明。
法は[これ]ですが未読です。。。
今回のスキームを具体的に調べているサイトなどがあったら、ぜひ教えてください。
[ 08:30 ]
[ 欧米 ]
;)
今と3月のベアスタ危機のときとの違いはいろいろあるんだと思うけど、実質金利が上昇しているのも大きな違いなんですよ。
マンキュー先生は5年TIPsを表示しているけど、ここでは10年を使っています。
名目金利と実質金利の差である期待インフレ率（BEI）は1.5％にまで低下している。
まーそれは、資産デフレから一般デフレへの転化を市場が懸念している、って説明できるんだけど、それならTIPsが下がって10年債がそれ以上に下がるのがフツーだと思うんだけど。
米国債がもうこれ以上は低下できないのかなぁ。。。潜在的なドル不安が強すぎるとか、中国が売るかもとか、
それとも、実質金利は米国経済のV字回復を予見してる？
んーーー、ナゾだ。。。
日本のときも10年債が4％にへばりついていて、これ以上金利さがんねーだろ、と皆が思っていた時期が暫くあって、そっから債券の大相場とデフレが始まったように記憶している。あやふやですが。
こっから、米長期金利が劇的に下がり始めて、デフレとドル安のリスタート、なんてこともあるかもな。。。
マンキュー先生は5年TIPsを表示しているけど、ここでは10年を使っています。
名目金利と実質金利の差である期待インフレ率（BEI）は1.5％にまで低下している。
まーそれは、資産デフレから一般デフレへの転化を市場が懸念している、って説明できるんだけど、それならTIPsが下がって10年債がそれ以上に下がるのがフツーだと思うんだけど。
米国債がもうこれ以上は低下できないのかなぁ。。。潜在的なドル不安が強すぎるとか、中国が売るかもとか、
それとも、実質金利は米国経済のV字回復を予見してる？
んーーー、ナゾだ。。。
日本のときも10年債が4％にへばりついていて、これ以上金利さがんねーだろ、と皆が思っていた時期が暫くあって、そっから債券の大相場とデフレが始まったように記憶している。あやふやですが。
こっから、米長期金利が劇的に下がり始めて、デフレとドル安のリスタート、なんてこともあるかもな。。。